Next Tory Leader Odds - Who Will Be The Next Conservative Leader?

Friday, 29 July 2022 15:29
Written by David Bet

Boris Johnson is set to resign as leader of the Conservative Party before stepping down as prime minister in the autumn. Voting in the Tory Leadership has officially opened and it’s currently taking the main headlines, It has been narrowed down to two candidates - Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss - as the party look to replace Boris Johnson. Who will be the Next Conservative leader? You can bet on it!

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Eleven candidates announced leadership bids but only former British finance minister Rishi Sunak and Foreign Secretary Liz Truss made it through to the final stage of the leadership contest to replace UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Penny Mordaunt was knocked out of the contest in the latest ballot, as Mr. Sunak topped the vote with support from 137 Conservative MPs, followed by Ms. Truss with 113 and Ms. Mordaunt with 105.

In the previous round, Mr. Sunak was top while Ms. Mordaunt came second and Ms. Truss third.

The next stage will see 12 hustings across the country between 28 July and 31 August as 160,000 Tory members make their mind up, with their vote closing on 2 September.

July 28: Leeds
August 1: Exeter
August 3: Cardiff
August 5: Eastbourne
August 9: Darlington
August 11: Cheltenham
August 16: Perth
August 17: Northern Ireland
August 19: Manchester
August 23: Birmingham
August 25: Norwich
August 31: London

In a lively clash on Monday hosted by the BBC, Truss and Sunak sparred on a variety of topics, including Brexit, the economy, their tax plans, China, TikTok and more.

Rishi Sunak was accused of bullying and mansplaining during his first head-to-head clash with Liz Sunak. Critics also questioned Truss’s tax and borrowing plans, which her rival claimed would trigger a surge in interest rates.

According to bookmakers, the TV debate has solidified Liz Truss' lead.

The final two candidates have also agreed to take part in a head-to-head debate on Sky News at 8pm on Thursday 4 August, hosted by Kay Burley.

So, who will be the next leader of the Conservative party (and eventually the next UK Prime Minister)?

Next Tory Leader Betting Preview

Rishi Sunak - 5/1

Mr Sunak was elected in 2015, succeeding former Tory leader Lord Hague in the seat of Richmond in North Yorkshire.

The former chancellor of the exchequer has long been among the favourites to be the next Tory leader.

It had seemed that the former chancellor's star had faded when he was fined for Partygate and after questions about his wife's tax status.

Declaring he was entering the race a day after Mr Johnson's resignation, Mr Sunak launched his bid in a glossy video on social media with a pledge to rebuild voters' trust after the previous tumultuous premiership.

Despite his image, some moderate Tories still believed he was the best candidate.

The bookies expect a closer run race next time out and Mr. Sunak could be worth a punt with such odds.

Liz Truss - 1/5

Liz Truss has held various positions under three Tory prime ministers and is one of the most interesting Conservative contenders. The foreign secretary has rocketed up the ministerial ladder during Johnson’s reign and has a favourable popularity rating among Tory members.

Many MPs on the right of the party appear to be throwing their weight behind her in a bid to stop Mr Sunak winning.

Furthermore, she benefitted from the elimination of Kemi Badenoch ahead of the final round of voting on Wednesday 20th July.

Ms Truss is now backable at 4/6 in the next Conservative Leader odds.

Next Conservative Leader Odds

With a General Election currently looking likely over the coming year, the odds on the next Tory Leader are fluctuating regularly.

Below you’ll find the latest odds for the Next Conservative Leader after Boris Johnson (updated on 27th July 2022).

Next Conservative Leader Odds

Eliminated Candidates

Penny Mordaunt 10/1

A prominent Brexiteer who took a more pragmatic approach while serving in Theresa May's government, Penny Mordaunt is now odds-on favorite in the running to become the next PM.

She received 67 votes in the first round, beating Liz Truss into third on 50.

A former defence secretary, the current trade minister has a military background and is a relative moderate.

Ms Mordaunt has said she will target the 'four i's' of investment, infrastructure, incentives and innovation to grow the economy.

Kemi Badenoch - 10/1

Former equalities minister Kemi Badenoch has been an MP since 2017. She has the support of Michael Gove. Grown up in Nigeria, Mrs Badenoch has promised to cut the size of the state and lead a "limited government focused on essentials". Her monetary policy will focus on tackling inflation.

Tom Tugendhat 80/1

Tom Tugendhat was a complete outlier last year. He is a former military man who stormed the polls since he saw Russia’s invasion of Ukraine coming long before Johnson did and was critical of the UK’s disastrous withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in August 2021. In his campaign launch speech he promised to reverse the increase in national insurance contributions, reduce fuel duty by 10p a litre and equalise funding across all English regions.

Suella Braverman 400/1

Suella Braverman confirmed she would be running after announcing her intentions before the prime minister resigned. The Attorney General, who was first elected as an MP in 2015, has the backing of Brexit diehard and former minister Steve Baker, who had previously been considering his own bid. She has promised "rapid and large tax cuts" to ease inflation.

How does the Tory leadership contest work?

The Conservative party’s 1992 Committee of backbench MPs announced the rules and procedure to elect the party’s new leader and therefore the next prime minister.

Candidates will need the backing of 20 named Conservative MPs to enter the race, and must gain votes from at least 30 MPs in order to pass the first ballot.

Further ballots will be held until the list of contenders is down to two finalists.

Tuesday, July 12 - Nominations close
Wednesday, July 13 - First Ballot
Thursday, July 14 - Second Ballot
July - September - Leadership hustings
Monday, September 5 - New PM Announced

How To Place A Next Tory Leader Bet

Placing a bet on the Next Tory Leader market is as simple as betting on any other futures market and can be done in a few simple steps.

You’ll find the market within the Politics or Specials section of a bookmakers site and the market will include a list of Politicians and their odds on becoming the next leader of the Conservative party.

All you need to do is then select the person you wish to bet on and place your bets...

Log in or sign up to an online bookmaker
Head to the Politics > Next Conservative Leader odds
Select the Politician you wish to bet on
Enter your stake in your betslip and place your bet

One thing to be aware of is the market is based upon the next permanent Tory leader and doesn’t take into account Acting Tory Leader roles.

So for example, if Boris Johnson stepped down from the role as Conservative Leader and Liz Truss temporary stood in while a contestfor the next Tory leader was held, you wouldn’t receive a payout for Truss unless he was then made the permanent leader.

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