Trump or Harris? Our US Elections Predictions, Betting Tips & Latest Odds
- Written by David Bet
Election Day in the United States is fast approaching as Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s battle for the keys to the White House prepares to reach a climax. Who will be the next President of the USA? This article contains our 2024 US Election betting preview with predictions, betting tips, latest odds, bookies' offers and no deposit free bets on the biggest political event of the year!
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Who are the candidates for the US Presidential Election?
Former US president Donald Trump, who was beaten by Joe Biden in the last US Presidential Election in 2020, is back and bidding to return to Washington after four chaotic and controversial years as the 45th President.
Trump was set to face Joe Biden, but the incumbent President opted to stand down amid concerns about his age and health. Vice President Kamala Harris has stepped up to the plate after a string of significant endorsements. She is bidding bidding to become the first woman to take the hotseat in the Oval Office. In 2016 Hillary Clinton failed to achieve this feat, surprisingly beaten by Trump.
There are also a number of minor party and independent candidates on the ballot but, quite frankly, they stand absolutely no chance in a nation that votes red or blue.
US Election Odds: Who is the Favorite?
Former President Donald Trump is the favourite in Election Winner betting market with the top betting sites, after regaining momentum on the campaign trail in recent months following a dramatic assassination attempt which he survived.Kamala Harris is well behind in the betting, after being head-to-head with Trump until last month. Anyway, her odds are slightly shortening in the last few days.
How does the US Presidential Election work?
The 50 states (and the District of Colombia) are assigned electoral college votes based on their population size.
In total, there are a total of 538 electoral college votes up for grabs and a candidate needs to secure 270 to be declared the winner.
The candidate that wins the most votes in each state bags the electoral college votes on offer. For example, California – the most populous state in the USA – is worth 54 electoral college votes while the Vermont is worth just three.
What are the swing states?
Many states are almost certain to vote Democrats or Republicans, but there are 7 states in which the outcome is uncertain. These are the places where the election will be won and lost. Known as battleground states or swing states, they are worth 93 electoral college votes.
The 7 swing states are:
- Arizona (11 Electoral College Votes)
- Georgia (16 Electoral College Votes)
- Michigan (15 Electoral College Votes)
- Nevada (6 Electoral College Votes)
- North Carolina (16 Electoral College Votes)
- Pennsylvania (19 Electoral College Votes)
- Wisconsin (10 Electoral College Votes)
Both Kamala Harris and her Republican opponent Donald Trump have spent the final week of the campaign crisscrossing the country, targeting these seven states in particular since they are considered toss-ups.
Who is winning in swing state polls?
In Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Arizona, the lead has changed hands a few times in the last three months but Donald Trump has a small lead in all of them according to polls on late October.
In the three other states - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan - Kamala Harris had led since earlyf August, sometimes by two or three points, but the polls have tightened significantly and the Republican tycoon now has a very small lead in Pennsylvania.
All three of those states had been Democratic strongholds before Trump turned them red on his path to becoming POTUS in 2016. Joe Biden regained them in 2020 and if Kamala Harris can retain all of them she will be on course to win the election.
Most observers believe the 2024 election could be among the closest in history. A New York Times/Siena College poll released early Sunday had encouraging signs for the Democratic candidate, indicating she could have narrow leads over Trump in battleground states such as Nevada, Georgia, Wisconsin and North Carolina.
How accurate are the polls?
The polls have underestimated support for Trump in the last two elections and the national polling error in 2020 was the highest in 40 years.
In 2016 millions of voters changed their mind in the final days of the campaign, something impossible to be taken into account by polls. Moreover, college-educated voters - who were supposedly more likely to vote for Hillary Clinton - were overestimated.
Four years ago, polls experienced problems with getting Trump supporters to take part in polls and, of course, it was the first election held during a pandemic.
Pollsters worked hard in the last 4 years ago to optimise their mathematical models. Good results were achieved in 2022 midterm elections but Donald Trump was not on the ballot in the midterms, and the tycoon clearly knows how to attract irregular voters and make the polls less accurate.
Our US Presidental Elections Predictions
With so much on the line, this looks set to be an extremely tight election. Anyway, in our opinion Trump's odds are too short at the moment given the tightness of swing-state polling and the ignored possibility that Harris may outperform surveys.
Find below our betting tips:
